Depending on how the situation evolves, Haiti may experience a death toll in the thousands.
According to the forecasts of the director of the National laboratory of epidemiology, also coordinator of the scientific cell, Dr. Patrick Delly, the “pandemic could affect 3 million people with at least 80% of them showing no symptoms of the disease” . If “measures are not taken” by the authorities and the population to stop the spread of the virus, according to the doctor, “ideally we can expect 2,000 deaths.”
In a “catastrophic scenario” predicting the “worst for the country” this “number of deaths may be multiplied by five or 10 (20,000 probable deaths) depending on the decisions that will be made,” warned Dr. Delly.
The lifesaving measures to avoid this catastrophic scenario range from confinement (even if the government has not so far imposed confinement but has only advised exits) to barrier gestures and the mandatory wearing of masks. “People have to wear a mask all the time. Even if it is a handmade mask. Failure to fully protect oneself, the mask can reduce the viral load to which one is exposed ”, he underlined. Dr. Delly and the other members of the cell also insisted on the use of a chlorinated carpet (a carpet soaked in chlorine) at the entrance of homes and institutions to prevent the virus from being transported under the soles.
In addition, the director of the national epidemiology laboratory is concerned about the reaction of the population to the measures already taken by the authorities. “We are sorry to see that behavior has not really changed. Merchants demonstrated in the streets, people play football in the streets, churches organize worship services again, “said Patrick Delly. According to him, these forecasts can change as the parameters of the modeling notably change the behavior of the population. “Follow the advice of health authorities will cost nothing but to ignore them is to take the risk of infecting an entire population,” said Dr. Delly, who advises not to forcibly move patients placed in quarantine or in isolation by the government.
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